Canada’s Election – As Canadian voters prepare to cast their ballots on Monday, no party is currently set to take a majority of seats in the federal election. The election is all about making life affordable for the every day consumer. Politicians are promising price cuts on a variety of things to resonate with voters. Polls say climate change and the environment are the top issues, not affordability. Polls often do not capture the willingness of the electorate to get out and vote. 50 to 70 year olds tend to get out and vote and tend to more likely vote conservative. A rule of thumb +3% on the polls for Conservatives.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives appear to be neck-and-neck. Voters will head to the ballot box to elect their new prime minister on Monday, bringing an end to six weeks of campaigning that has been light on policy and heavy on personality.
No party has an obvious line to 170 seat majority. The popularity poll is misleading, while no on leader or party has a run away lead. One must dig deeper into the polls and look at the seat projections. If one looks at the following area codes, 905, 519, 705 in Ontario there are over 25 seats that were fairly solid seats for the Conservatives before the last election when Trudeau took the election. With many of these seats plus 7-10 in the West and 1-3 in the east then the conservatives could inch their way closer to the magic 170. They will need to steal a few seats where the left split the votes. The Liberals and NDP can be out voted by a conservative and BQ vote if the seat counts equal 167 – then the Liberals and NDP would need the greens.